Hourly Forecast - Mogollón, PAN

We are in the middle of March, which means severe weather climatologically ramps up. Mother Nature will live up to this expectation with a multi-day severe weather outbreak through the end of the weekend.

A quick-moving weather disturbance will slide across the south-central U.S. today. Ahead of this disturbance, there will be increasing southerly winds that will funnel instability and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. This increase in moisture will cause a dryline, or a sharp boundary between a humid air mass and a dry air mass, to develop. Thunderstorms will develop along the dryline and then move east this evening into Thursday morning, likely becoming strong to severe.

The government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today. This is equivalent to a rating of 2 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale. The Slight Risk covers southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana and includes cities such as Dallas and Shreveport, La.

The main threats within thunderstorms will be large to very large hail and damaging winds. Hail up to the size of baseballs will be possible, while wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are likely. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.

Anyone from eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas through Arkansas, northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi should be prepared for rapidly changing weather though. Here, there will be the potential for quarter-sized hail and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph.

This fast moving-weather disturbance shifts into the Deep South and Southeast on Thursday. However, the disturbance should weaken some as it advances east. Still, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Mississippi, most of Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Large hail and strong winds will once again be the main concern.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a new weather system will cause a multi-day severe weather outbreak from the Mississippi Valley into the Eastern Seaboard. All severe modes will be possible, including swaths of intense winds and strong tornadoes.

With severe weather in the forecast over the next several days, make sure to know the difference between a watch and a warning should they become issued. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur and to be on alert for any rapidly changing conditions. A warning means that severe weather is imminent, and you should act fast to remain safe.

The best way to remain safe is to stay prepared and informed about your local weather. Have a severe weather kit packed with a battery-operated radio, water and non-perishable food items should you be without power for long periods of time. Also, check the WeatherBug app frequently for any updates on today’s severe weather. Remember, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!”