A dangerous multi-day severe weather outbreak is set to start across the Mississippi Valley today.
A weather system developing over the Plains will be responsible for the multi-day outbreak that is set to feature swaths of intense winds, large and destructive hail, and strong, violent tornadoes.
A developing low pressure system over the Plains will continue to draw plenty of very warm and humid air northward across the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, cooler and drier air will press southward across the Plains behind this low pressure system. The clash of these two air masses will result in a violent outbreak of severe thunderstorms today.
The Government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk, or a 4 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, across central and southern Iowa, much of Illinois, northern and eastern Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee. This includes cities such as Des Moines, Iowa, Springfield and Peoria, Ill., St. Louis, and Memphis, Tenn.
Surrounding this area is a large Enhanced Risk, or a 3 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale. Cities inside this area include Omaha, Neb., Kansas City, Mo., Chicago, and Jackson, Miss.,
A Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, envelops this area and includes cities such as Milwaukee, Louisville, Ky., Nashville, Tenn., and Little Rock, Ark.
In addition to the severe weather threat, a large swath of gusty winds will be likely across the Plains into the Midwest today into Saturday as this storm system continues to intensify. Numerous High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued.
By Saturday, the severe weather threat will shift a bit to the south and east as the storm system moves from the central Plains across the Upper Midwest. A Slight Risk extends from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. A large Enhanced Risk includes much of the Tennessee Valley and Deep South, while a Moderate Risk, or a 4 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, covers much of Alabama, Mississippi, the western Florida Panhandle, and eastern Louisiana. Additionally, a High Risk (level 5 out of 5) has been issued for central and southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This High Risk area signifies the most dangerous tornado threat, with the potential for long-track, violent tornadoes (EF3+), particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Like today, all modes of severe weather are expected on Saturday, including intense winds, large hail, and dangerous tornadoes. Cities at risk throughout the day include Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Ky., Nashville, Tenn., Atlanta, Birmingham, Ala., Jackson, Miss., and New Orleans. The most significant tornado threat will focus on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, where conditions will be most favorable for violent, long-track tornadoes.
This system’s cold front will press eastward across the Appalachian Mountains into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, with the continued threat for severe thunderstorms. A Slight Risk stretches from southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward through southeastern Georgia and northern Florida.
The main threat with storms on Sunday will be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes will remain possible. Some cities at risk on Sunday include Philadelphia, Washington, Richmond, Va., Charlotte and Raleigh, N.C., Charleston, S.C., and Jacksonville, Fla.
With severe weather in the forecast over the next several days, make sure to know the difference between a watch and a warning should they become issued. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur and to be on alert for any rapidly changing conditions. A warning means that severe weather is imminent, and you should act fast to remain safe.
The best way to remain safe is to stay prepared and informed about your local weather. Have a severe weather kit packed with a battery-operated radio, water and non-perishable food items should you be without power for long periods of time. Also, check the WeatherBug app frequently for any updates on today’s severe weather. Remember, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!”
